Intuition decision making is an unconscious process created out of distilled experience. It doesn’t necessarily operate independently of rational analysis rather the two complement each other. And importantly, intuition can be a powerful force in decision making. For instance research on chess playing provides an excellent illustration of how intuition works.
Novice chess players and grand masters were shown an actual but unfamiliar chess game with about 25 pieces on the board. After 5 or 10 seconds, the pieces were removed and each was asked to reconstruct the pieces by position. On average, the grand master could put 23 or 24 pieces in their correct squares, while the novice was able to replace only 6. Then the exercise was changed. This time the pieces were placed randomly on the board. Again, the novice got only about 6 correct, but so did the grand master. The second exercise demonstrated that the grand master didn’t have any better memory than the novice. What the grand master did have was the ability, based on the experience of having played thousands of chess games, to recognize patterns and clusters of pieces that occur on chessboards in the course of games. Studies further show that Chess professionals can play 50 or more games simultaneously, in which decisions often must be made in only seconds, and exhibit only a moderately lower level of skill than when playing one game under tournament conditions, where decisions take half an hour or longer. The expert’s experience allows him or her to recognize the pattern in a situation and draw on previously learned information associated with that pattern to arrive at a decision choice quickly. The result is that the intuitive decision maker can decide rapidly based on what appears to be very limited information.
For most of the twentieth century, experts believed that the use of intuition by decision makers was irrational or ineffective. That’s no longer the case. There is growing recognition that rational analysis has been overemphasized and that, in certain instances relying on intuition can improve decision making.
When are people most likely to use intuitive decision making? Eight conditions have been identified (1) when a high level of uncertainty exists; (2) when there is little precedent to draw on; (3) when variables are less scientifically predictable; (4) when “facts” are limited; (5) when facts don’t clearly point he way; (6) when analytical data are of little use; (7) when there are several plausible alternative solutions from which to choose with good arguments for each; and (8) when time is limited and there is pressure to come up with the right decision.
Although intuitive decision making has gained respectability , don’t expect people – especially in North America, Great Britain, and other cultures in which rational analysis is the approved way of making decisions to readily acknowledge that they‘re using it. People with strong intuitive abilities don’t usually tell their colleagues how they reached their conclusions. And since rational analysis continues to be more socially desirable, intuitive ability is often disguised or hidden. As one top executive commented, sometimes one must dress up a gut decision in ‘data clothes’ to make it acceptable or palatable, but this fine tuning is usually after the fact of the decision.
The above has given various circumstances under which a decision has to be taken by experienced managers. Sometimes the combination of data does not fall under any particular sequence or logic. In that case a manager has to bank on his experience and functional knowledge to take a decision for giving a direction to his team. Such decisions are called decisions made through intuition. Some of the best examples of intuitive decision making are from the captains of Indian cricket team which made India win championship and trophies.