The title does not mean Indians are running the world and it is not the script of a movie where an Indian megalomaniac and his henchmen take control. India’s burgeoning population hitherto held responsible for all the ills that the country is suffering, will script a turnaround in our standing in the comity of nations. This is according to an authentic government source.
An ageing population will make the developed world, and even China, dependent on India which will have a surplus workforce of 4.7 crore people by the year 2020. At the same time, it is estimated, the US will face a shortage of 1.7 crore people while China and Japan will have deficits of one crore and 90 lakh, respectively. This will make India, which will have a predominantly young population, the human resource pool for the world, helping the country tide over an expected unemployment crisis.
India has a distinct comparative factor advantage as a vast reservoir of skilled manpower. There will be a lot of opportunities thrown at India because of the demographic advantage it will have over other countries. The demographic differentials reveal that over the next 20-30 years, India’s population profile will be concentrated in the younger age group, as against the other countries.
The requirement for skilled workers in the developed markets is increasing and the availability of skilled manpower is failing to keep pace. This trend is evident in fields such as medicine, IT services and education.
Though India is at an advantageous position, it will have to take various initiatives to make the most out of this situation. Several studies have pointed out that a huge chunk of India’s educated class is almost unemployable.
To tide over this difficulty, the government is trying to ensure the promotion and development of market determined skill sets across the entire economy with emphasis on 20 high-growth employment sectors.
The government is focusing on sectors like food processing, refrigeration, furniture and furnishings, media, entertainment, broadcasting, content creation and animation. Organized retail and real estate services have been added to the high-growth employment sectors. These are speculations. Just citing figures will not help. Educational Professors opine that the level of learning is quite unsatisfactory by present standards. There is a lot of pressure for privatisation and commercialisation of education. Students are getting sub-standard learning from private institutes that have mushroomed in the country.
A scarcity of skilled people to act as trainers is another issue that needs to be addressed before stating figures. It is an open secret that we lack skilled people and the government will have to put in some effort in higher education before making claims.
Projections are fine, but there needs to be a lot of planning and work that needs to be done to make it happen. The training system has to be robust and has to have a wider reach.
A reputed global financial firm, UBS in a report said that in Asia the developing and a leading economy China is rapidly becoming a middle-aged and middle market economy, and there is a meaningful threat to its high growth may not be for a few years but after that. In contrast India has much more youthful features the report added and will be able to beat China at least in one respect. India has favorable demographics that could see its high growth rate not only be sustained, but probably improved upon.
Demographics are changing the Global Economy and it appears that young India will definitely edge out ageing China the study revealed. In assessing the impact of demographics on economic performance and characteristics, India can easily sustain a GDP growth of more than 7% over the next 25 years, and an outcome close to 8% is feasible and cannot be ruled out.
A favorable demographic outlook is likely to support claims about India’s capacity to remain one of the biggest recipients of IT out sourcing from leading countries of the world.
Elaborating on the ageing world, the report says in the developed world, the share of over-65 in relation to the 15-64 year old group ranges between 20-30%, with higher rates in Japan and continental Europe. These rates will creep up in the next five years, but after 2010 there will be a substantial rate of increase such that by 2020, the range of older people among the countries will be 25-45%.
In the cases of Japan and Italy By 2030, the range of older people will be 30-50% and by 2050, it will range between 35% to about 70%. This ‘youth depopulation’, will have far reaching implications for the economy, consumers product companies, providers of educational and child care service, the housing sector and a part of the core (real estate lending) business of financial services institutions, according to the experts who have made the study of global demographics and its impact on economy.
Our inference is the changing age structures make an impact on the working age population, which is perhaps the most significant. In developing countries, S. Africa and China are already exhibiting exceptionally slow labor force growth. China’s labor force, according to United Nations data, is entering a protracted period of stagnation and will decline after about 2015. India, Malaysia and Turkey all have much better demographic profiles, even though the growth in their working age populations will slow to a trickle in the long-term.